IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
UC Riverside
Big West
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.7	#296
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	60.8	#340
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.5	#302

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.2	#266

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.6%	5.8%	2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.6	15.2	15.6

.500 or above	23.0%	52.2%	21.3%
.500 or above in Conference	28.5%	48.2%	27.4%
Conference Champion	2.3%	6.5%	2.0%
Last Place in Conference	23.4%	12.1%	24.1%

First Four	1.3%	1.9%	1.3%
First Round	2.1%	5.1%	1.9%
Second Round	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska (Away) - 5.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 4
Quad 3	2 - 7	2 - 11
Quad 4	9 - 8	11 - 19

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2019	88	@ Nebraska	L	57-74	5%
Nov 09, 2019	338	Idaho	W	68-60	76%
Nov 15, 2019	280	@ Sacramento St.	L	63-67	37%
Nov 17, 2019	247	@ Pacific	L	60-66	30%
Nov 23, 2019	305	Denver	W	69-65	63%
Nov 26, 2019	260	Longwood	W	67-66	52%
Nov 29, 2019	324	SIU Edwardsville	W	72-66	69%
Dec 04, 2019	228	@ California Baptist	L	66-73	27%
Dec 15, 2019	157	@ Washington St.	L	65-76	17%
Dec 19, 2019	278	Northern Arizona	W	70-68	57%
Dec 22, 2019	330	@ San Jose St.	W	69-68	51%
Dec 28, 2019	118	@ Fresno St.	L	58-72	12%
Dec 31, 2019	170	@ Air Force	L	61-71	19%
Jan 09, 2020	266	@ UC Davis	L	60-65	34%
Jan 11, 2020	213	Cal St. Fullerton	L	66-68	44%
Jan 16, 2020	208	Cal St. Northridge	L	71-73	44%
Jan 18, 2020	106	@ UC Irvine	L	56-71	11%
Jan 23, 2020	327	Cal Poly	W	69-63	68%
Jan 25, 2020	160	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	59-70	18%
Jan 30, 2020	289	Long Beach St.	W	72-69	59%
Feb 05, 2020	213	@ Cal St. Fullerton	L	63-71	27%
Feb 08, 2020	208	@ Cal St. Northridge	L	68-76	26%
Feb 12, 2020	106	UC Irvine	L	59-68	24%
Feb 15, 2020	289	@ Long Beach St.	L	69-72	39%
Feb 20, 2020	183	Hawaii	L	63-66	41%
Feb 22, 2020	327	@ Cal Poly	L	65-66	50%
Feb 27, 2020	160	UC Santa Barbara	L	62-67	34%
Mar 01, 2020	183	@ Hawaii	L	60-69	23%
Mar 07, 2020	266	UC Davis	W	63-62	54%
Projected Record						11 - 18	6 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.1	0.3	0.7	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0		2.3	1st
2nd									0.0	0.3	1.3	1.8	0.9	0.3	0.0				4.6	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.6	2.3	2.7	0.9	0.1	0.0					6.8	3rd
4th							0.1	1.0	3.9	3.8	1.0	0.1	0.0						9.8	4th
5th						0.1	1.5	5.0	3.9	1.0	0.1								11.5	5th
6th				0.0	0.2	2.3	6.1	5.1	1.1	0.0									14.9	6th
7th			0.0	0.6	3.5	6.7	4.9	1.0	0.0										16.7	7th
8th		0.1	1.6	5.0	6.6	3.7	0.7	0.0											17.8	8th
9th	1.1	3.2	5.0	4.1	1.8	0.3	0.0												15.6	9th

Total	1.1	3.3	6.6	9.8	12.2	13.2	13.2	12.1	9.6	7.5	5.2	3.1	1.7	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
15-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1	0.0
14-2	93.0%	0.3		0.3	0.1
13-3	72.2%	0.7		0.4	0.2	0.0
12-4	38.3%	0.7		0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
11-5	10.7%	0.3		0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
10-6	2.0%	0.1			0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	2.3%	2.3		1.1	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.0%		50.0%	50.0%		12.9												0.0	0.0		0.0			0.0
15-1	0.1%		41.0%	41.0%		13.5												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
14-2	0.4%		37.7%	37.7%		14.2													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2
13-3	0.9%		19.6%	19.6%		15.1														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.7
12-4	1.7%		13.0%	13.0%		15.1														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	1.5
11-5	3.1%		13.6%	13.6%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	2.7
10-6	5.2%		7.1%	7.1%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.3	4.8
9-7	7.5%		5.1%	5.1%		15.8																0.1	0.3	7.1
8-8	9.6%		3.4%	3.4%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.3	9.2
7-9	12.1%		2.1%	2.1%		16.0																0.0	0.3	11.9
6-10	13.2%		1.5%	1.5%		16.0																	0.2	13.0
5-11	13.2%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.1	13.1
4-12	12.2%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	12.1
3-13	9.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	9.8
2-14	6.6%																							6.6
1-15	3.3%																							3.3
0-16	1.1%																							1.1

Total	100%		2.6%	2.6%	0.0%	15.6												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	1.8	97.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%